Monday, 18 August 2014

Brent retreats in absence of supply disruptions in Iraq

Brent crude futures slipped from the highest level in almost nine months as the widening conflict in Iraq has so far spared the country’s main oil-producing region.


Prices fell as much as 0.8% as Iraq’s army fought with an al-Qaeda breakaway group to recapture territory near the borders with Jordan and Syria and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry called on Iraqi leaders to unite against the militants. The violence hasn’t spread to the south, home to more than three-quarters of Iraq’s output.


“At these levels we really need to see further disruption to get another rally,” said Gene McGillian, an analyst and broker at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “The militants have not gotten anywhere near the oil-producing regions.”


Brent for August settlement slid 55 cents, or 0.5%, to $114.26 a barrel at 12:57 p.m. New York time on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The grade rose to $115.71 on June 19, the highest since Sept. 9. The volume of all futures was 41% above the 100-day average for the time of day.


West Texas Intermediate for August delivery fell 76 cents, or 0.7%, to $106.07 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The volume of futures traded was about 23% below the 100-day average. Brent was at a premium of $8.04 to WTI on the ICE, compared with $7.98 on June 20.


Could Spread


President Barack Obama told CBS that the fighting could spread to allies like Jordan. The militants “are engaged in wars in Syria where - in that vacuum that’s been created -- they could amass more arms, more resources,” he told CBS in an interview that will be aired in full today, June 23, according to a transcript.


Iraqi government forces took back the Al Waleed border crossing into Syria and the Traibil passageway near Jordan, state-sponsored Iraqiya television reported, citing the defense ministry. Fighters from the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, or ISIL, were earlier reported to have seized the borders.


On a visit to Baghdad, Kerry met with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, as well as ministers and party leaders. He told reporters after the talks that Iraq faces an “existential threat,” and said U.S. support “will be intense, sustained, and if Iraq’s leaders take the necessary steps to bring the country together, it will be effective.” He said Obama has reserved the right to decide on further action such as air strikes against ISIL.


‘Still Flowing’


“Even though the situation in Iraq is still very intense, the worst-case scenario that the militants will take over the oil-producing region didn’t happen, and that’s why the market is coming down,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at the Price Futures Group in Chicago. “The oil is still flowing.”


Iraq’s crisis flared when ISIL militants this month captured Mosul, the country’s biggest northern city, and advanced to towns just north of Baghdad. Iraq pumped 3.3 MMbopd last month, data compiled by Bloomberg show, second only to Saudi Arabia in the 12-member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.


“It’s fear that drives prices up, not real supply disruptions,” Carsten Fritsch, an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt, said by email. “The latter remain very unlikely.”


Sent North


Southern Iraq accounted for more than 85% of the country’s 3.1 MMbpd of production in April and all of its 2.5 MMbpd of exports, which are shipped by tanker from the Persian Gulf, according to the latest data from the Ministry of Oil. Some crude can also be sent north to Turkey by pipeline from the autonomous Kurdish region and west to Jordan by truck.


WTI slipped as U.S. crude supplies stayed near a seasonal high. Inventories decreased 579,000 barrels to 386.3 million in the week ended June 13, the Energy Information Administration said last week. They climbed to 399.4 million in April, the highest since EIA began publishing weekly data in 1982.


“The fundamentals remain pretty weak, limiting the market’s advance,” McGillian said.


Gasoline futures dropped 1.82 cents, or 0.6%, to $3.1095 a gallon on the Nymex and ultra-low sulfur diesel decreased 1.92 cents, or 0.6%, to $3.032.


Hedge funds increased bets on rising WTI prices to a record in the week ended June 17. Speculators raised their net-long position in the U.S. benchmark by 4.3% to 356,336 futures and options, the most in Commodity Futures Trading Commission data going back to 2006.


Mosdor Global Estates, providing support in the buying and selling of crude oil, other petroleum products. Publishing news and reviews in the oil and gas plus real estate industry online.

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